Recently, the domestic vinyl acetate market has experienced a wave of price increases, especially in the East China region, where market prices have risen to a high of 5600-5650 yuan/ton. Additionally, some traders have seen their quoted prices continue to rise due to scarce supply, creating a strong bullish atmosphere in the market. This phenomenon is not accidental, but the result of multiple factors intertwined and working together.

Supply side contraction: maintenance plan and market expectations

From the supply side, the maintenance plans of multiple vinyl acetate production enterprises have become an important factor driving price increases. For example, companies such as Seranis and Chuanwei plan to conduct equipment maintenance in December, which will directly reduce market supply. At the same time, although Beijing Oriental plans to resume production, its products are mainly for personal use and cannot fill the market gap. In addition, considering the early start of this year’s Spring Festival, the market generally expects that the consumption in December will be higher than in previous years, further exacerbating the tight supply situation.

Demand side growth: new consumption and purchasing pressure

On the demand side, the downstream market of vinyl acetate shows strong growth momentum. The continuous emergence of new consumption has led to increasing purchasing pressure. Especially the execution of some large orders has had a significant upward effect on market prices. However, it is worth noting that small terminal factories have relatively limited ability to bear high prices, which to some extent limits the room for price increases. Nevertheless, the overall growth trend of downstream markets still provides strong support for the price increase of vinyl acetate market.

Cost factor: Low load operation of carbide method enterprises

In addition to supply and demand factors, cost factors are also one of the important reasons driving up the price of vinyl acetate in the market. The low load of carbide production equipment due to cost issues has led most enterprises to choose to source vinyl acetate externally to produce downstream products such as polyvinyl alcohol. This trend not only increases the market demand for vinyl acetate, but also further drives up its production costs. Especially in the northwest region, the decline in the load of carbide processing enterprises has led to an increase in spot inquiries in the market, further exacerbating the pressure of price increases.

Market Outlook and Risks

In the future, the market price of vinyl acetate will still face certain upward pressure. On the one hand, the contraction of the supply side and the growth of the demand side will continue to provide impetus for price increases; On the other hand, the increase in cost factors will also have a positive impact on market prices. However, investors and practitioners also need to be vigilant about potential risk factors. For example, the replenishment of imported goods, the implementation of maintenance plans by major production enterprises, and early negotiations with downstream factories based on rising expectations in the market may all have an impact on market prices