The propylene oxide market “Jinjiu” continued its previous rise, and the market broke through the 10000 yuan (ton price, the same below) threshold. Taking the Shandong market as an example, the market price rose to 10500~10600 yuan on September 15, up about 1000 yuan from the end of August. On September 20, it fell back to about 9800 yuan. In the future, the supply side is expected to grow, the demand peak season is not strong, and the propylene oxide fluctuates in 10000 yuan.
Increase of propylene oxide unit restart supply
In August, a total of 8 sets of propylene oxide units were overhauled in China, involving a total capacity of 1222000 tons/year and a total loss of 61500 tons. In August, the output of domestic propylene oxide plant was 293200 tons, down 2.17% month on month, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.83%.
In September, Sinochem Quanzhou propylene oxide unit was shut down for maintenance, Tianjin Bohai Chemical, Changling, Shandong Huatai and other units were restarted successively, and Jinling unit was reduced to half load operation. At present, the operating rate of propylene oxide is close to 70%, slightly lower than that in August.
In the future, Shandong Daze’s 100000 t/a unit will resume production in late September, and Jincheng Petrochemical’s 300000 t/a unit is expected to be put into production at the end of September; Jinling and Huatai plants are returning to production step by step. The supply side is mainly incremental, and traders are more bearish. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will show a weak trend of stalemate under the increase of supply concentration, with a small downward risk.
Propylene oxide raw material support is expected to be difficult
For the upstream raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine, although “Jinjiu” ushered in a wave of rising market, it is expected that it will be easier to fall than to rise in the future market, which will be difficult to form a strong pull for the downstream.
In September, the price of propylene, the upstream raw material, continued to rise in shock, which also provided strong support for the propylene oxide market. Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that domestic propylene supply remained tight, with obvious performance in northwest, central and eastern China. In addition, some maintenance devices downstream of propylene, such as Tianjian Butyl Octanol, Dagu Epoxy Propane, and Kroll Acrylonitrile, have resumed construction. Therefore, market demand has been driven upward, propylene enterprises have been selling smoothly, and low inventory has driven propylene prices upward.
From the perspective of unit operation, on the one hand, Xintai Petrochemical and propylene units were restarted, but the impact was relatively limited due to frequent delays. At the same time, some new production capacities of propane dehydrogenation to propylene in Shandong were put into operation less than expected, and the overall supply was relatively controllable. On the other hand, in the near future, some major units in the northwest have been shut down for maintenance, and the commencement of propylene in the northwest has dropped to 73.42%. The circulation of peripheral propylene goods has decreased significantly. In addition, some northwest plants have stored propylene demand for external production, and the supply of peripheral propylene has been significantly tightened.
In the future, the unit load of propylene enterprises is relatively stable, and there is no expectation of significant changes in propylene supply. The peripheral regions of Shandong and East China will still maintain a tight supply. Downstream tends to weaken with the plate, suppressing the buying enthusiasm of propylene downstream. Therefore, the current propylene market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the downstream octanol, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile and other industries have increased their load, and the rigid demand side still has some support. It is expected that the subsequent propylene price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with limited rise and fall.
Another raw material, liquid chlorine, is a major player in the market. The external sales volume of some equipment maintenance of major factories decreased slightly, and some manufacturers in central Shandong were unstable, which supported the market to continue to rise to a certain extent. The downstream of the main force in East China has recovered, the demand has eased, and some devices have been shut down for maintenance. The supply has shrunk. The favorable situation on the supply and demand side has superimposed on the upward trend in the Shandong market, driving the overall transaction focus of the market to move up. Meng Xianxing said that with the recovery of production reduction devices and the increase of supply, the price of liquid chlorine may decline in the later period.
The demand for propylene oxide is sluggish and difficult to thrive in peak seasons
Polyether polyol is the most important downstream product of propylene oxide and the main raw material for polyurethane synthesis. The overall overcapacity of the domestic polyurethane downstream industry, especially the excess pressure of the soft foam market, is large.
Meng Xianxing said that in September, driven by costs, the soft foam polyether market rose, and the main industry continued to support the market, but the downstream performance was average, and the middle and lower reaches were still low.
At present, the downstream sponge is steadily rising, the upstream cost still needs to be further transmitted, the middle and lower reaches keep digestion and waiting, and the solid market continues to be light. In the future, although the real bad news has not yet formed, many manufacturers still lack space due to cost clamping, and their role in supporting upstream raw materials is limited.
On the other hand, the downstream hard foam polyether market maintained a gentle upward trend, and the middle and lower reaches continued to buy on demand. Although the overall activity was lower than the same period, it improved compared with the second quarter. Although entering “Jinjiu”, there is no obvious change in market demand, and the factory determines production based on demand.
In the future, downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and their willingness to purchase new orders is general. In the situation of weak trading and investment, hard foam polyether “Jinjiu” is not good enough to inject vitality into the upstream.

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