Since November, the overall domestic epoxy propane market has shown a weak downward trend, and the price range has further narrowed. This week, the market was pulled down by the cost side, but there was still no obvious guiding force, continuing the stalemate in the market. On the supply side, there are individual fluctuations and reductions, and the market is relatively spacious. In November, there was no significant market trend, and price fluctuations were relatively narrow. Factory shipments within the month were flat, and inventory was mostly in the middle, indicating relatively abundant overall.

From the perspective of supply side, the domestic supply of epoxy propane is at a moderate level within the year. As of November 10th, the daily production was 12000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 65.27%. At present, the parking of Yida and Jincheng in the venue has not been opened, and the second phase of CNOOC Shell has been in a continuous maintenance state for the entire month. Shandong Jinling has been stopping for maintenance one after another on November 1st, and some inventory is currently being sold out. In addition, both Xinyue and Huatai experienced short-term fluctuations and rebounded in the early days. Within the month, shipments from the production factory are average, and inventory is mostly in the middle, with some occasionally under pressure. With the addition of East China US dollar supply, the overall situation is relatively abundant.

From a cost perspective, the main raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine have shown an upward trend in recent days, especially the price of propylene in Shandong. Affected by the shrinking supply side and sustained demand, it rose strongly at the beginning of this week, with a daily increase of over 200 yuan/ton. The epoxy propane chlorohydrin method gradually showed a loss trend within the week, and then stopped falling and stabilized. In this round of the market, the cost side was effectively supported by the epoxy propane market, but after the decline stopped, the cost side still showed an upward trend. Due to limited feedback from the demand side, the epoxy propane market has not rebounded yet. At present, the prices of propylene and liquid chlorine are both relatively high, with a significant decline in crude oil prices and limited downstream affordability of propylene and liquid chlorine. It may be difficult to maintain the current high prices in the future, and there is an expectation of a decline in inventory.

From the demand side, the traditional peak season of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” has performed relatively steadily, with November mostly being the traditional off-season. Downstream polyether orders are average, and we are watching the price fluctuations in the environmental protection market narrow. At the same time, with no obvious positive fundamentals, the buying sentiment has always been cautious and demand oriented. Other downstream industries such as propylene glycol and flame retardants often experience downtime for maintenance due to high competition and poor profitability. The current low utilization rate of production capacity makes it difficult to provide effective support for environmental protection. At the end of the year, enterprises had more consideration for accepting orders, and they were limited in their early stocking plans due to the abundant market in the third tier environment. Overall, the band type follow-up terminal feedback is moderate.

Looking ahead to future market performance, it is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain fluctuating and consolidating within the range of 8900 to 9300 yuan/ton by the end of the year. The impact of individual fluctuations and contractions on the supply side on the market is limited, and although the cost side has a strong lifting effect, it is still difficult to drive upward. The feedback from the demand side is limited, and at the end of the year, enterprises have more consideration for receiving orders, resulting in limited advance stocking plans. Therefore, it is expected that the market will remain stagnant in the short term. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a trend of temporary shutdown and negative reduction in other production units under cost pressure, and to pay attention to the production progress of Ruiheng New Materials (Zhonghua Yangnong).