1、 The export volume of butanone remained stable in August

In August, the export volume of butanone remained at around 15000 tons, with little change compared to July. This performance exceeded previous expectations of poor export volume, demonstrating the resilience of the butanone export market, with export volume expected to remain stable at around 15000 tons in September. Despite weak domestic demand and increased domestic production capacity leading to intensified competition among enterprises, the stable performance of the export market has provided some support for the butanone industry.

2、 Significant increase in the export volume of butanone from January to August

According to data, the total export volume of butanone from January to August this year reached 143318 tons, an overall increase of 52531 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of up to 58%. This significant growth is mainly due to the increasing demand for butanone in the international market. Although the export volume in July and August has declined compared to the first half of the year, overall, the export performance in the first eight months of this year has been better than the same period last year, effectively alleviating the market pressure caused by the commissioning of new facilities.

3、 Analysis of Import Volume of Major Trading Partners

From the perspective of export direction, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India are the main trading partners of butanone. Among them, South Korea had the highest import volume, reaching 40000 tons from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 47%; Indonesia’s import volume has grown rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 108%, reaching 27000 tons; Vietnam’s import volume also achieved a 36% increase, reaching 19000 tons; Although India’s overall import volume is relatively small, the increase is the largest, reaching 221%. The import growth of these countries is mainly due to the recovery of Southeast Asian manufacturing industry and the reduction of maintenance and production of foreign facilities.

4、 Prediction of the trend of first falling and then stabilizing in the butanone market in October

The butanone market in October is expected to show a trend of first falling and then stabilizing. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the inventory of major factories increased, and they faced certain shipping pressure after the holiday, which may lead to a decline in market prices. On the other hand, the official production of new facilities in southern China will have an impact on the sales of factories from the north going south, and market competition, including export volume, will intensify. However, with the low profit of butanone, it is expected that the market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the second half of the month.

5、 Analysis of the possibility of production reduction in northern factories in the fourth quarter

Due to the commissioning of new facilities in southern China, the northern factory of butanone in China is facing greater market competition pressure in the fourth quarter. In order to maintain profit levels, northern factories may choose to reduce production. This measure will help alleviate the supply-demand imbalance in the market and stabilize market prices.

The export market for butanone showed a stable trend in September, with a significant increase in export volume from January to September. However, with the commissioning of new devices and intensified competition in the domestic market, the export volume in the coming months may show a certain degree of weakness. Meanwhile, the butanone market is expected to show a trend of first falling and then stabilizing in October, while northern factories may face the possibility of production cuts in the fourth quarter. These changes will have a significant impact on the future development of the butanone industry.