From October 2022 to mid 2023, prices in the Chinese chemical market generally declined. However, since mid 2023, many chemical prices have bottomed out and rebounded, showing a retaliatory upward trend. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the trend of the Chinese chemical market, we have compiled market price data for over 100 chemical products, observing the market situation from two perspectives: the past six months and the most recent quarter.

Analysis of China’s chemical product market in the past six months

In the past six months, compared to the same period last year, over 60% of the chemical market prices have fallen, indicating a bleak sentiment in the market. Among them, the price drops of process gases, polycrystalline silicon, glyphosate, lithium hydroxide, raw salts, sulfuric acid, lithium carbonate, antioxidants, and liquefied natural gas are the most significant.

Among the declining types of chemical products, industrial gases have shown the largest decline, with a comprehensive decline, and the cumulative decline of some products even exceeds 30%. Some products related to the new energy industry chain are also closely following, such as products related to the photovoltaic industry chain and lithium battery industry chain, with significant price drops.

On the other hand, products such as liquid chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, glacial acetic acid, heptane, octanol, crude benzene, and isopropanol show a trend of price increase. Among them, the octanol market saw the most significant increase, reaching over 440%. Basic chemicals have also increased, but the average increase is only about 9%.

Among the rising types of chemical products, about 79% of the products have increased by less than 10%, which is the largest increase in product quantity. In addition, 15% of chemical products increased by 10% -20%, 2.8% by 20% -30%, 1.25% by 30% -50%, and only 1.88% by more than 50%.

Although the majority of chemical products market growth is within 10%, which is a relatively reasonable fluctuation range, there are also a few chemical products that have experienced significant growth. The degree of marketization of bulk chemicals in China is relatively high, and most rely on the domestic supply and demand environment to affect market fluctuations. Therefore, in the past six months, the majority of the chemical market has increased by less than 10%.

As for the types of chemicals that have fallen, about 71% of them have fallen by less than 10%, accounting for a relatively large decline. In addition, 21% of chemicals experienced a decline of 10% -20%, 4.1% experienced a decline of 20% -30%, 2.99% experienced a decline of 30% -50%, and only 1.12% experienced a decline of over 50%. It can be seen that although there has been a widespread downward trend in China’s bulk chemical market, most products have experienced a decline of less than 10%, with only a few products experiencing significant price declines.

China’s chemical product market in the past three months

According to the proportion of product quantity fluctuations in the chemical industry market in the past three months, 76% of products have experienced a decline, accounting for the largest proportion. In addition, 21% of product prices have increased, while only 3% of product prices have remained stable. From this, it can be seen that the chemical industry market has continued to decline mainly in the past three months, with the majority of products falling.

From the perspective of declining product types, multiple products, including industrial gas and new energy industry chain products such as nitrogen, argon, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, etc., experienced the largest decline. In addition, some basic raw materials for bulk chemicals also experienced a decline during this period.

Although the chemical market has experienced some degree of growth in the past three months, over 84% of the chemical products have increased by less than 10%. In addition, 11% of chemical products increased by 10% -20%, 1% of chemical products increased by 20% -30%, and 2.2% of chemical products increased by 30% -50%. These data indicate that in the past three months, the chemical market has mostly shown a slight increase, with limited market price fluctuations.

Although there has been an increase in the prices of chemical products in the market, it is more due to the rebound from the previous decline and the change in market environment. Therefore, these increases do not necessarily mean that the trend within the industry has reversed.

At the same time, the declining chemical market is also showing a similar trend. About 62% of chemical products have a decrease of less than 10%, 27% have a decrease of 10% -20%, 6.8% have a decrease of 20% -30%, 2.67% have a decrease of 30% -50%, and only 1.19% have a decrease of more than 50%.

Recently, oil prices have continued to rise, but the support provided by cost growth to market prices is not the best logic for market price increases. The consumer market has not yet transformed, and the prices of China’s chemical products market are still in a weak trend. It is expected that the Chinese chemical market will remain in a weak and volatile state for the remaining period of 2023, which may drive the growth of the domestic consumer market towards the end of the year.