As we all know, the ongoing energy crisis has posed a long-term threat to the chemical industry, especially the European market, which occupies a place in the global chemical market.

Currently, Europe mainly produces chemical products such as TDI, propylene oxide and acrylic acid, some of which account for nearly 50% of the global production capacity. In the growing energy crisis, these chemical products have successively experienced supply shortages, and the domestic chemical market has been affected by price increases.

Propylene oxide: the start-up rate is as low as 60% and has exceeded 4,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year

The production capacity of European propylene oxide accounts for 25% of the world. At present, many plants in Europe have announced production cuts. At the same time, the start-up rate of domestic propylene oxide has also dropped, which is the low point in recent years, down about 20% from the normal start-up rate. Many large companies have started to stop the supply of the product by reducing the dimension.

Many large chemical companies have supporting downstream propylene oxide, and most of the products are for their own use, and not much is exported. Therefore, the market circulation spot is tight, product prices have picked up significantly since September. early August propylene oxide prices rose from 8000 yuan / ton to about 10260 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 30%, the cumulative increase of more than 4000 yuan / ton in the second half of the year.

Acrylic acid: upstream raw material prices rose, product prices rose 200-300 yuan / ton

European acrylic acid production capacity accounted for 16% of the world, the escalation of international geopolitical conflicts, resulting in high crude oil, raw material prices rose propylene, cost support enhanced. After the end of the holiday season, users returned to the market one after another, and the acrylic acid market rose steadily under a variety of factors.

The market price of acrylic acid in eastern China was RMB 7,900-8,100/mt, up RMB 200/mt from the end of September. Ex-factory prices of acrylic acid and esters in Shanghai Huayi, Yangba Petrochemical and Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical increased by RMB 200-300/mt. After the holidays, the raw material propylene market prices rose, cost support enhanced, some of the device load is limited, downstream buying to follow up positive, acrylic acid market center of gravity rose.

TDI: nearly half of the global production capacity is not available, the price increased by 3,000 yuan / ton

After the National Day, TDI five consecutive up to 2436 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of more than 21%. From 15,000 yuan / ton in early August to now, the current cycle of TDI rise has been more than 70 days, up more than 60%, hitting a new high of nearly four years. There are many sets of TDI equipment parking in Europe, the domestic start rate also entered the low point of the year, the supply side of the shortage of TDI rally is still strong.

The current TDI global nominal production capacity of 3.51 million tons, overhaul devices or face production capacity of 1.82 million tons, accounting for 52.88% of the total global weight TDI capacity, that is, nearly half of the equipment is in a state of suspension, the world is in a state of suspension. tDI supply is tight.

Germany BASF and Costron in overseas parking, involving a total capacity of 600,000 tons of TDI; South Korea Hanwha 150,000 tons of TDI plant (3 * planned in October 24, rotating maintenance 50,000 tons to November 7, a period of about two weeks; South Korea Yeosu BASF 60,000 tons of equipment is scheduled for maintenance in November.

Shanghai Costco stopped in China for about one week, involving 310,000 tons of capacity; in October, Wanhua Yantai unit was scheduled for maintenance, involving 300,000 tons of capacity; Yantai Juli, Gansu Yinguang unit was stopped for a long time; on September 7, Fujian Wanhua 100,000 tons unit was stopped for maintenance for 45 days.

Due to the soaring cost of energy and raw materials in Europe, local energy and raw material costs soared, TDI plant start-up rate is low, the trend of tight goods prices also made the market price rapidly soared. in October, Shanghai BASF TDI raised 3000 yuan / ton, the domestic TDI spot price has exceeded 24000 yuan / ton, industry profits reached 6500 yuan / ton, TDI prices are expected to still have room to rise.

MDI: Europe is higher than the domestic 3000 yuan / ton, Wanhua, Dow raised

Europe MDI accounts for 27% of the global production capacity, under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the United States of natural gas supply tension, which significantly increased its supply MDI production costs. Recently, European MDI was about $3,000 per ton higher than MDI in China.

Require winter heating, MDI part of the demand will be released in October; in foreign countries, the recent overseas energy crisis issues remain prominent, favoring MDI prices.

Since September 1, Dow Europe or European market MDI, polyether and composite products prices rose by 200 euros / ton (about RMB 1368 yuan / ton). Since October, Wanhua Chemical has been gathering in China MDI up 200 yuan / ton, pure MDI up 2000 yuan / ton.

The energy crisis has not only stimulated price increases, but has also contributed to rising overall costs such as logistics costs. More and more industrial, manufacturing and chemical industries in Europe have started to shut down and reduce production, and the production and sales of raw materials such as high-end chemical products have been hampered. For China, this means that imports of high-end products more difficult, or lay the groundwork for future changes in the domestic market!

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