1、 In mid October, the price of epoxy propane remained weak

In mid October, the domestic epoxy propane market price remained weak as expected, showing a weak operating trend. This trend is mainly influenced by the dual effects of steady increase in the supply side and weak demand side.

2、 The supply side is steadily rising, while the demand side is lukewarm

Recently, the load increase of enterprises such as Sinopec Tianjin, Shenghong Hongwei, Wanhua Phase III, and Shandong Xinyue has significantly increased the market supply of epichlorohydrin. Despite the parking and maintenance of Jinling in Shandong and the load reduction operation of Huatai in Dongying, the overall supply of epoxy propane in China has shown a steady upward trend due to the fact that these enterprises have inventory for sale. However, the demand side was not as strong as expected, leading to a weak game between supply and demand, and the price of propylene oxide fell as a result.

3、 The problem of profit inversion is becoming increasingly serious, and price declines are limited

With the decline in epoxy propane prices, the problem of profit inversion has become increasingly severe. Especially among the three mainstream processes, the chlorohydrin technology, which was originally relatively profitable, has also begun to experience significant profit losses. This has limited the price decline of epichlorohydrin, and the rate of decline is relatively slow. The East China region has been affected by the low-priced auction of Huntsman’s spot goods, resulting in price chaos and downward negotiations, continuing to hit a new annual low. Due to the concentrated delivery of early orders by some downstream factories in Shandong region, the enthusiasm for purchasing epoxy propane is still acceptable, and the price is relatively stable.

4、 Market price expectations and breakthrough points in the latter half of the year

Entering late October, epoxy propane manufacturers actively seek market breakthrough points. The inventory of northern factories is running without pressure, and under strong cost pressure, the mentality of raising prices is gradually heating up, attempting to drive downstream demand to follow up through through price increases. At the same time, China’s export container freight rate index has significantly declined, and it is expected that downstream and terminal product export constraints will gradually decrease, and export volume will gradually increase. In addition, the support of the Double Eleven promotion also holds a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the situation of terminal domestic demand. It is expected that end customers will engage in the behavior of selecting low demand for replenishment in the latter half of the year.

5、 Prediction of Future Price Trends

Taking into account the above factors, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in the price of epoxy propane in late October. However, given that Jinling in Shandong will start production at the end of the month and the overall weak demand environment, the sustainability of demand side follow-up is expected to be pessimistic. Therefore, even if the price of epichlorohydrin rises, its space will be limited, expected to be around 30-50 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market may shift towards stable shipments, and there is an expectation of a price drop at the end of the month.

In summary, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a weak operating trend in mid October under the weak supply-demand game. The future market will be influenced by multiple factors, and there is uncertainty in price trends. Manufacturers need to closely monitor market trends and flexibly adjust production strategies to respond to market changes.