1、 The trend of continuous increase in MMA production capacity

In recent years, China’s MMA (methyl methacrylate) production capacity has shown a significant increasing trend, growing from 1.1 million tons in 2018 to 2.615 million tons currently, with a growth rate of nearly 2.4 times. This rapid growth is mainly due to the rapid development of the domestic chemical industry and the expansion of market demand. Especially in 2022, the growth rate of domestic MMA production capacity reached 35.24%, and 6 sets of equipment were put into operation during the year, further promoting the rapid growth of production capacity.

2、 Analysis of the Difference in Capacity Growth between Two Processes

From the perspective of production processes, there is a significant difference in the capacity growth rate between ACH method (acetone cyanohydrin method) and C4 method (isobutene oxidation method). The capacity growth rate of ACH method shows an increasing trend, while the capacity growth rate of C4 method shows a decreasing trend. This difference is mainly due to the influence of cost factors. Since 2021, the profit of C4 MMA production has continued to decline, and serious losses have occurred from 2022 to 2023, with an average annual profit loss of over 2000 yuan per ton. This directly hinders the production progress of MMA using the C4 process. In contrast, the profit margin of MMA production by ACH method is still acceptable, and the increase in upstream acrylonitrile production provides sufficient raw material guarantee for ACH method. Therefore, in recent years, most MMA produced by ACH method is adopted.

3、 Analysis of upstream and downstream supporting facilities

Among MMA production enterprises, the proportion of enterprises using ACH method is relatively high, reaching 13, while there are 7 enterprises using C4 method. From the downstream situation of supporting facilities, only 5 enterprises produce PMMA, accounting for 25%. This indicates that the downstream supporting facilities in MMA production enterprises are not yet perfect. In the future, with the extension and integration of the industrial chain, the number of supporting downstream production enterprises is expected to increase.

4、 Upstream situation of ACH method and C4 method matching

In ACH MMA production enterprises, 30.77% are equipped with upstream acetone units, while 69.23% are equipped with upstream acrylonitrile units. Due to the fact that the hydrogen cyanide in the raw materials produced by ACH method mainly comes from the re production of acrylonitrile, the start-up of MMA by ACH method is mostly affected by the start-up of the supporting acrylonitrile plant, while the cost situation is mainly affected by the price of raw material acetone. In contrast, among the MMA production enterprises using the C4 method, 57.14% are equipped with upstream isobutene/tert butanol. However, due to force majeure factors, two enterprises have stopped their MMA units since 2022.

5、 Changes in industry capacity utilization rate

With the rapid increase in MMA supply and relatively slow demand growth, the industry’s supply and demand pattern is gradually shifting from supply shortage to oversupply. This transformation has led to limited pressure on the operation of domestic MMA plants, and the overall utilization rate of industry capacity has shown a downward trend. In the future, with the gradual release of downstream demand and the promotion of industrial chain integration, the utilization rate of industry capacity is expected to be improved.

6、 Future market outlook

Looking ahead, the MMA market will face many challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, multiple global chemical giants have announced capacity adjustments to their MMA plants, which will affect the supply and demand pattern of the global MMA market. On the other hand, domestic MMA production capacity will continue to grow, and with the development and application of new technologies, production costs are expected to further decrease. Meanwhile, the expansion of downstream markets and the development of emerging application areas will also bring new growth points to the MMA market.