In the first half of the year, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell. In the first quarter, acetone imports were scarce, equipment maintenance was concentrated, and market prices were tight. But since May, commodities have generally declined, and downstream and end markets have been weak. As of June 27th, the East China acetone market closed at 5150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton or 4.63% compared to the end of last year.
From early January to the end of April: There has been a significant decrease in imported goods, resulting in tight market prices for goods
In early January, port inventory increased, downstream demand was sluggish, and market pressure decreased. But when the East China market fell to 4550 yuan/ton, profits tightened due to severe losses for holders. In addition, the Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant has decreased, and market sentiment has rebounded one after another. During the Spring Festival holiday, the external market was strong, and dual raw materials staged a good start in the market. The acetone market is rising with the rise of the industrial chain. With the scarcity of imported goods for the maintenance of Saudi phenolic ketone plants, the new phenolic ketone plant of Shenghong Refining and Chemical is still in the debugging stage. Futures prices are firm, and the market continues to destock. In addition, there is a shortage of spot goods in the North China market, and Lihuayi has significantly raised the ex factory price to drive the East China market.
In early March, the acetone inventory in Jiangyin decreased to a level of 18000 tons. However, during the maintenance period of Ruiheng’s 650000 ton phenol ketone plant, the market’s spot supply remained tight, and the cargo holders had high price intentions, forcing downstream companies to passively follow up. In early March, international crude oil continued to decline, cost support decreased, and the overall atmosphere of the industrial chain weakened. In addition, the domestic phenolic ketone industry has started to rise, leading to an increase in domestic supply. However, most downstream industries have suffered production losses, which has weakened the enthusiasm for raw material procurement, hindered merchants’ shipments, and led to a sense of profit giving, resulting in a slight decline in the market.
However, since April, the market has once again strengthened. The shutdown and maintenance of Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol Ketone Plant and the maintenance of a set of Phenol Ketones in Shandong have strengthened the confidence of the holders and obtained more exploratory high reports. After Tomb Sweeping Day, they came back. Due to tight supply in North China, some merchants have purchased spot goods from East China, which has once again sparked enthusiasm among merchants.
From late April to the end of June: Low starting demand suppresses continuous decline in downstream markets
Starting from May, although multiple phenol ketone units are still under maintenance and the supply pressure is not high, with downstream demand becoming difficult to follow up, demand has significantly weakened. Acetone based isopropanol enterprises have started operations very low, and the MMA market has weakened from strong to weak. The downstream bisphenol A market is also not high, and the demand for acetone is tepid. Under the constraints of weak demand, businesses have gradually shifted from initial profitability to being forced to ship and wait downstream for low-priced purchases. In addition, the dual raw material market continues to decline, with cost support decreasing and the market continuing to decline.
Towards the end of June, there has been a recent replenishment of imported goods and an increase in port inventory; The profit of the phenol ketone factory has improved, and the operating rate is expected to increase in July; In terms of demand, the factory fully needs to follow up. Although intermediate traders have participated, their inventory willingness is not high, and downstream proactive replenishment is not high. It is expected that the market will adjust weakly in the next few days at the end of the month, but the market volatility is not significant.
Prediction of acetone market in the second half of the year
In the second half of 2023, the acetone market may experience weak fluctuations and a decrease in price center fluctuations. Most phenolic ketone plants in China are basically centralized for maintenance in the first half of the year, while maintenance plans are scarce in the second half, resulting in stable operation of the plants. In addition, Hengli Petrochemical, Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phase II, and Longjiang Chemical are planning to put into operation multiple sets of phenolic ketone units, and the supply increase is an inevitable trend. Although some new equipment is equipped with downstream bisphenol A, there is still surplus acetone, and the third quarter is usually a low season for terminal demand, which is prone to decline but difficult to rise.